Monday, October 7, 2013

I Would Expect that this Depression Will Continue Indefinitely

“[But] most of them don’t understand what’s going on in the economy. They’re using the wrong models. Everyone is using cyclical models…expecting some kind of robust recovery…they’ve been wrong every single time, [and] the reason is that we’re not in a cyclical recovery…We’re in a depression. We are in a depression for the first time since the 1930s…[So] if you’re curious and you want to know what a depression feels like, it feels like this because we’re in one.”

“The problem with a depression,” James continued, “is that it’s not a business cycle. It’s a different [economic] condition and so cyclical remedies such as monetary easing don’t work…You need a structural remedy and that means changes in tax laws, labor mobility, regulatory policy, fiscal policy etc…I don’t see any resolution of the structural issues on the table and therefore I would expect that this depression will continue indefinitely.”

- Source, Bull Market Thinking: